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Qing Liu

Diplômé DBA - 2020

Titre de thèse

Research on the Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on the Performance of Securities Firms

Superviseur(s)

Roberto Barontini
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of fiscal expenditure, tax revenue, monetary supply and interest rate changes on the performance of securities firms from an empirical perspective, and to explore their relationship. Design/methodology/approach - This paper regards the growth rate of fiscal expenditure and tax revenue as the indicators of fiscal policy. All data are from CSMAR database, the time interval from the first quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2017. As for firm performance, this paper take return on equity (ROE) of securities companies as measurement index, the data come from the Wind database. Finally, we establish a VAR model to verify relationships between variables Findings - The results show that fiscal expenditure policy has a negative impact on firm performance of securities industry, and this negative impact gradually diminishes over time; Tax policy has little effect on firm performance of securities industry; The money supply and interest rate in monetary policy have a substantial impact on firm performance of securities industry, among which the impact of interest rate adjustment is more significant. Research limitations/implications - This paper has two limitations: This paper only considers two fiscal policies of fiscal expenditure and tax revenue, without subdividing these policies and analyzing the impact of more detailed fiscal policies on firm performance of securities industry; There are many factors that affect firm performance of securities industry, but this paper does not take them into account comprehensively, the future research can integrate other factors to analyze their influence on firm performance of securities industry; In terms of the choice of monetary policy tools, only taking money supply and interest rate into consideration, without taking other monetary tools into the model, which is a limitation of this study; Practical implications - The research conclusion will provide a basis for Chinese macroeconomic regulation, and it can achieve macroeconomic regulation of security market by implementing different macroeconomic policies; Meanwhile, our results also provide referential suggestions for securities industry to adjust its production management decision and realized its sustainable development. Originality/value - This paper has several research values. First, this paper adopts monetary supply and interest rate tools to study the relationship between monetary policy and firm performance, and provides new evidence for their relationship. Second, this paper builds a VAR model to study the impact of fiscal policy and monetary policy on firm performance. Key words: fiscal policy; monetary policy; securities industry; performance; VAR model